Scenarios

The first step to assess GHG reduction scenarios was to agree on a European Reference Scenario, which was defined by the PRIMES model until the year 2030 and extended by the ADAM project until the year 2050. The GHG-TransPoRD project then applied an iterative two-step approach to define the policy packages to be tested against this Reference Scenario. The first step of scenario definition was to test preliminary scenarios and to discuss their results with stakeholders at a workshop using the outcomes of the discussions to refine the scenario definitions and to develop the final set of scenarios relevant for the analyses. The concept of the definition of scenarios was twofold: (1) the structure of scenarios should allow to differentiate between the big drivers of impacts, i.e. between technology, policy and behavioural changes, and (2) initial scenarios started with a low number of single measures integrated into their policy package, to generate more advanced scenarios gradually further measures are added into the applied policy package. During this process of scenario design, testing and assessment the two major models applied for the European analysis, ASTRA and POLES, were each roughly undertaking 500 simulations of scenarios. Finally, the following six core scenarios have been agreed and tested by the various models (see D4.1):

  • MAX_E&M scenario: Maximum Efficiency at Market conditions. This scenario includes most of the technological measures for all modes, including both conventional and innovative cars. However, without policy interventions and with strong efficiency improvements of conventional cars the innovative cars using alternative fuels would not diffuse into the fleet.
     
  • EV scenario: Electric Vehicles. In this scenario the technological effort is concentrated on electric vehicles (battery electric and plug-in hybrids) that receive government support to enter the market.
     
  • HFC scenario: Hydrogen Fuel Cells vehicles. This scenario follows the same approach of the EV scenario, but the technological effort and the supporting policies are concentrated on the development and market diffusion of Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles.
     
  • EV+HFC scenario. This scenario is the combination of the EV and HFC scenarios plus fuel tax increase to compensate tax revenue losses due to efficiency gains and fuel switch to hydrogen.
     
  • AMB_TP scenario: Ambitious Technology and Policy. This scenario shares the same technological measures as in the MAX_E&M scenario plus the additional supporting policies for Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cells vehicles.
     
  • AMB_REG scenario: Ambitious regulation builds on AMB_TP and assumes further regulations that would phase out the purchase of fossil fuel based cars after 2035 and takes extraordinary measures to shift road freight to rail and shipping.